ed: This article provides a fairly broad analysis of the current security situation in Israel, and the problems that are expected to erupt at the beginning of 2009. The far left Haaretz in this analysis talks about the expected attacks by Hamas and their greatly increased ability to do damage, the expected need to fortify Israeli towns against rocket attacks and the budget crunch. Conspicuous by its absence is the concept of victory, or even of taking any serious action to put an end to Hamas’ attacks on Israel. This shows once again the insanity inherent in the minds of the left wing of Israel and elsewhere, that defeat is assumed and desirable, and victory over aggressive enemies is considered immoral. Likewise the negative attitude of the left wing towards people who aren’t of the same class and and don’t live in the same location as themselves: why are even small towns in the Negev referred to as “settlements”? Their hatred against Jews in the Shomron and Judea is well known and obvious, but apparently it extends to every Jew who doesn’t live in Tel Aviv and go to “peace conferences”.
translation of Haaretz Hebrew edition
On the background of the conflict between Fatah and Hamas, which the IDF expects might flare up in the Gaza Strip in early 2009, requiring Israeli action. It is clear to all that Hamas has received and built thousands more rockets in recent months, some relatively long range. “It’s possible to shield Nahal Oz, maybe even Sderot “, says a senior officer,” but what about Ashkelon, and even further, Ashdod and Kiryat Gat?”Past experience requires a degree of skepticism: In most cases, when Israel prepared in advance for a military confrontation on a specific date, it proved out to be a false alarm. Yasser Arafat did not declare an independent Palestinian state in May 1999; the second intifada only broke out after a year and a half; even the attack on Syria’s nuclear reactor in September 2007 did not bring war. But in recent weeks the Security Service the political echelon has come to estimate that there is likely to be a renewed confrontation with Hamas in the Gaza Strip in January 2009.
For now, Israel is an observer to an internal conflict – Palestinian – but it could feel powerful ramifications from it. January 9, 2009 will be the rupture point. The dispute between Fatah and Hamas over the degree of legitimacy of the authority of the President, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) from that point on, is liable to lead to a real confrontation.
Israel assumes Hamas’ threats to be credible, that they won’t allow Abbas to continue in office after that date. The Islamic organization is expected to subvert the authority in the West Bank through various means. It has already started a methodical campaign of de-legitimization in the Arab world. An extreme scenario, but certainly possible, would include attempts to assassinate Hamas leaders of the PA security apparatus and attempts on the life of Abbas himself.
A month ago a Nahum Barnea reported in Yediot Aharanot on a meeting of senior officers of the IDF Central Command, which expressed concern for the lives of the senior Palestinian leadership. Palestinian chief of staff, General Diab Al Ali, said a few days later in an interview with Avi Issahof of Haaretz, that Fatah needed to prepare itself immediately to take the occupation of the Gaza Strip from Hamas within a month. It was probably bluff. Fatah does not have the means, since it has no significant military force in Gaza and would prefer to focus on the protection of its interests in the West. Still, the message registered with Hamas: what do you have to lose?
Violations of the ceasefire excused
It is no secret that Israel is not interested in escalation in Gaza. Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the Chief of Staff, Major General Gabi Ashkenazi, led the line that prevented war with Hamas in Gaza in the spring of last year. Prime minister Ehud Olmert agreed with their position. In his resignation tell-all interview two weeks ago, Olmert enthusiastically said that Israel has nothing to gain by military activity in Gaza.
On the other hand, rather close security coordination between the IDF and Palestinian Authority, a move that neither side makes a real effort to hide, may serve as an excuse for Hamas to engage Israel in the conflict when it begins. That is not the only consideration: the leadership of Hamas in Gaza (and presumably the leadership of the military arm of Hamas), while supporting the ceasefire (the “tahadiya”) for the present, has had to fend off pressure from jihadis in the area, who believe that this course has exhausted itself. The theater could also re-ignite as a result of an attack by Hamas, but not without a clear green light from the leadership of Hamas – whether through an attack on Israeli tourists in the Sinai (an Israeli warning of that was given two months ago) or renewal of the firing of Qassam rockets.
Since Israel’s position on the “tahadiya” (ceasefire) is that it “depends only on the girls’ heart” (unilaterally changeable, not a written agreement) – it leaves the parties much space for interpretation. Every so often Hamas has claimed, and Israel rejected, that the ceasefire is for a period of six months only, and ends in the latter half of December, unless Israel will agree to expand it to the West Bank (ed: meaning that Israel should agree to conduct no more counter-terrorism raids in the West Bank). Israel is expected to reject this demand, which can in itself constitute an excuse to the resume the bombing in a month.
Meanwhile, the IDF responds to a quiet border and only rarely, and quietly, works in Gaza. At the end of September, IDF forces arrested two Hamas members, suspected of placing booby-trap bombs on the Palestinian side of the fence. The organization, knowing the activity violated the ceasefire agreement, was satisfied with only a protest in one of the Palestinian media outlets, then rushed to cover up the incident. But as a rule, Israel is also wary of breaking the agreement. In the general staff, the lone minority opinion of the Southern Command, Yoav Gallant, warns in closed forums that Israel is buying temporary quiet at a higher future price – a whole complete peace. If there is criticism, it relates to the lack of willingness of the government to discuss the question of where to take the ceasefire from here.
Don’t count on Egypt
In the past two months the security establishment has been marching to prepare different scenarios prior to January. A senior security service source explains that, at the beginning of next year preparatons will be complete for for the possibility of renewed conflict in Gaza. “Currently, Gaza is at the top of the priorities. Clearly, we have a high likelihood of confrontation there. It may be more likely there than in the north, where, despite the will of Hezbollah to avenge the death of Imad Mugniyeh, there are still more impediments to the conflict”.
The concern about things catching fire in Gaza stands as the basis of the senior IDF officers’ belief that time is running out to achieve a deal to release Gilad Shalit. Although things are being said in public, the General Staff fears the renewal of fighting Hamas will clog the pipes on the chance to release the kidnapped soldier – and possibly will cause Hamas to smuggle Shalit out of the Gaza Strip.
Israel does not have much hope in the Egyptian mediation efforts between Fatah and Hamas, that resumed in Cairo last week. Not only because the chances of success of the talks are unclear; also an internal reconciliation in the Palestinian conflict does not coincide with Israeli interests. Even if it is one where Israel has not spurred the authority blatantly “to enter” Hamas, in Ramallah they understand how things look from Jerusalem.
This is the background to the Israeli readiness to expand the deployment of Palestinian security forces in cities in the West Bank (this week it was agreed to allow 700 Palestinian troops entry to the Hebron area). Chief of Staff Ashkenazi explained about a month ago in a meeting with commanders of the IDF reconnaissance brigade in the West Bank. Where the Palestinian Authority works, said the officers, we are not required to work by ourselves. These terms not been heard in the West for at least seven years.
The hesitation of Defense Minister Barak to appoint a new coordinator in the territories is not new and is apparently stuck not only on competion between two senior officers in his office, his Chief of Staff, Brigadier General Mike Herzog, and Secretary of the Military, Brigadier General Eitan Dangott. It will be seen that Barak is not looking forward to the change in the coordinator job, which is now staffed by an experienced acting deputy, the head of the political department in his office, and former coordinator General (reserve) Amos Gilad.
Gilad, who actually seems to enjoy going back to the field, recently also reflected that “it is known that there is nothing more permanent than temporary”. There is no question that Gilad is in his element there. He frequently visited the area, and in the tour passing through the Gaza Strip several weeks ago, also got involved and reduced the lists of the passed goods to the Gaza Strip, on the grounds that this is allowed. This is a latitude that the previous permanent coordinator, Gen. Yosef Mishlav, did not allow himself.
The financial crises eats away the budget
As part of the attempt to take advantage of the ceasefire period in Gaza, each week in Gaza the Home Front Command places dozens of “elements”, components of protection – from bomb shelters and security, through a monitor in the streets and enhanced protection to the schools and children. But the main focus of the work is up to 4.5 kilometers from the fence, in unprotected settlements exposed not only to rocket attacks but also the enhanced mortars that Hamas received from Iran. The problem, of course, is the work being done covers only a small part of the territory threatened from the Gaza Strip.
It is clear to all that Hamas has received and built thousands more rockets in recent months, some relatively long range. “It’s possible to shield Nahal Oz, maybe even Sderot “, says a senior officer,” but what about Ashkelon, and even further, Ashdod and Kiryat Gat?” If Hamas received, as we suspect, rockets with a range of close to 30 kilometers, this means that even they are in the vulnerable range. But if we get started fortifying high-rise buildings in Ashkelon, we’ll never stop. On the other hand, if the threat of rockets is not removed, it is clear to us the citizens will require the state to do exactly that.” This is not simply a matter of principle, but also economics. The cost to protect 120 thousand residents of Ashkelon will be almost impossible economically.
This uncertain issue highlights the concern with the budget of the defense establishment. The IDF and the Ministry of Defense have not yet grasped the significance of the new global financial crisis. Clearly, global recession will affect Israel, and ultimately affect the defense budget. Yet, at the same time there are also concerns that went down on the list. Only two months ago, there were complaints to the military and especially the Air Force about the steady rise in operating costs, especially in the area of fuel. Now, since a barrel of oil dropped from a record 140 dollars per barrel to a relatively low 90 dollars, it is one less headache to deal with.
On the other hand, the director of the Bank of Israel, Stanley Fischer, is implying in interviews that changes are required to the 2009 national budget, with the security system eating up incoming incoming budget reserves. The defense budget is the biggest significant increase apparently, even with cutting it. The previous budget cycle, despite the noise made to the media by the Ministry of Finance, ended two months ago without damage to real security. Salaries and pensions have not not been touched, although the Treasury came back and leaked IDF officer salaries to the press. This time, the economic and security budgets may return on a collision course, with the budget debate in a month, along with the possibility of a military flare up. It’s already possible to guess that in times like this, with the suspicion of increased inflation risks, the defense establishment will be engaged in military budget battles.
Hebrew text of the article:
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